预测市场出现 GTA VI 专辑曲目泄露，Kalshi 招聘广告遭质疑

There aren’t a ton of prediction markets out there for Grand Theft Auto VI. Make of that what you will in our gambling-addled age.

But I’ve been keeping an eye out for them and the stunts around them. (Note: I’m not actually paying into any of them. I don’t bet and wouldn’t urge you to indulge in any totally-not-gambling, either.)

I was considering publishing a brief item for Game File readers next week, about how it’s not so much GTA VI the game that’s generated much interest in the world of bet-on-everything sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi. It’s the music.

For the last few weeks, I’ve monitored a prediction market on Kalshi titled “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album - Features,” which has been taking payments on whether the game’s official music album will include everyone from Young Thug and Lady Gaga to Eminem and Ed Sheeran.

The album, which features 34 original tracks, will officially be released on November 19, the same day as the game.

• The market opened on September 17, the day Rockstar announced the album.

• By Halloween, Kalshi users had bought, sold and otherwise traded $1 million in “volume” (think of that as bets, more or less) on which artists would be on the album.

• When I checked yesterday at 11:45 am ET, there’d been $1.8 million placed.

• Today, it’s over $2.2 million.

By contrast, a Kalshi market about GTA VI’s review score (above 96?) has drawn just over $80,000 in bets. The market that lets people bet on which artists appar on the in-game radio stations in GTA VI—the musical aspect of GTA that the series is best known for—is even smaller. Just over $22,000 in bets on that one.

The biggest market on Kalshi tied specifically to GTA VI as a game has been about where it would release before 2027. It has over $7 million in betting volume but has been a no-brainer for months. (GTA VI is also included in a still-active $2 million market around predicting Game of the Year at December’s The Game Award.)

The reason I’m sharing all of this with you today instead of next week is because it might be moot now.

The tracklist for GTA VI: The Album appeared to leak overnight. There’s a clip online of a person—possibly a store worker with a copy that can’t be sold yet; seemingly real, not AI—showing the back of the album’s vinyl, posted at 2:17am ET.

The leak shows songs from Travis Scott, Lana Del Rey, Cardi B, Keith Richards and more.

The Kalshi market about the album is still open at the time of this writing, but the likelihood of the artists shifted dramatically after the leak.

As an example, Bad Bunny’s odds tanked overnight, from 49% yesterday afternoon to 5% this morning. I’m guessing it’s because he’s not named on the back of the album, as it appeared in the leak. As I was writing this, though, people were still placing money on him being on the album.

The betting market on this album is technically slated to close “after the outcome occurs,” which seemingly doesn’t account for the leak.

I’ve asked Kalshi about that, since, if the leak is as legit as it looks, there’s no guesswork involved any more.

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A “real” job listing

Despite (or maybe because of) the lack GTA VI markets on Kalshi tailored to actual GTA VI players, Kalshi has recently been trying to jump on the hype wave. Earlier this week, Kalshi posted a “GTA VI researcher” job. The first line of the description “This is a real job.”

The listing promised pay of $100-$120k for a researcher who would stream the game and produce a weekly report about GTA VI’s in-game economy.

Perks for the job listed by Kalshi included $75 in DoorDash credit “every day.” Assuming this was a real perk for a real job, that would come out to nearly $20,000 in DoorDash credit a year, not counting weekends.

Skeptical, I asked Kalshi about the DoorDash perk on Thursday. I also asked about the listing’s mention that the pay would be in effect for the “duration of the contract.” How long was the contract?

Kalshi did not respond, but the job listing has been updated and the DoorDash perk is no longer included. The overall pay is now referred to as a “fixed project fee.”

As of this writing, the GTA job has tallied over 21,000 applications via LinkedIn

For more on prediction markets and video games, I recommend ReaderGrev’s revent coverage of Polymarket’s esports hype project.

Update - November 14, 2026 - 2:00pm: Clarified that the betting totals for Kalshi’s markets are presented as “volume,” which covers any buy or sell transaction.